Energy Demand and Emission Analysis of Islamabad Industrial Area Using Energy Model

Study was conducted for the projection of energy demand and emission analysis for the next thirty years, taking the 2000 as a base year. This has been determined with the help of the Long Range Energy Alternative planning system (LEAP). It forecasted the energy consumption and environmental emissions in industrial area of Islamabad. All available energy consumption activities and socio-economic data have been collected for input to the model to obtain results based on different scenario. Initially, a reference scenario was created based on the current energy situation. This uses the base year situation and the expected future changes based on the likely plans and growth trajectories. It is “Business-as-usual” scenario with implementation of anticipated and likely to be carried out projects and policies. Then alternative scenario that simulates new policy measure was developed to meet the energy demand and reduce environmental emissions. Different alternative scenarios were Fuel efficiency Improvement (FEI) and Oil to Natural Gas (OTN). These scenarios were then evaluated to check the validity of different scenarios, which resulted in maximum emission reduction. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.